CTC.A: We the (True) North: Tone of management meetings reinforces our constructive view

Research evidence excerpt

CTC.A: We the (True) North: Tone of management meetings reinforces our constructive view

five customer segments positive, with the thrifty cohort EPS, Ops Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

showing the highest growth. Insolvencies ticking higher, but industry-wide 2025 2.00A 3.57A 3.78A 4.47A 2026 2.02A 3.96E 4.09E 4.39E

phenomenon and unpredictable, with no clear geographic or tariff-related 2027 2.55E 4.34E 4.38E 4.64E

trends; write-off rates at high-end of normal but stable. EBITDA

2025 422.4A 552.6A 564.0A 629.5A

Current emphasis on increasing the top line, with focus on efficiency 2026 437.1A 569.9E 580.5E 602.6E

2027 471.2E 589.7E 591.4E 610.0E and performance management to drive operating leverage. True North

should deliver 3-5% revenue growth (delta reflects immigration, GDP, All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.

employment) with earnings growing faster and gross margins 35%+. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

True SG&A operating leverage more difficult to achieve given wholesale

structure and techflation, but opex growth is being actively managed

down through business-case discipline, and balancing tech debt retirement

against new investment. FCF directed toward share buybacks. Limited

M&A appetite beyond opportunistic, brand focused tuck-ins (i.e. Stripes).

Proactive risk management capabilities at CTFS moderate downturn

performance risk. Management employs both top-down KPI oversight and

bottom-up portfolio adjustments, with monthly performance reviews and

close monitoring by geography/cohort. Management views the card as

having significant untapped potential under CTC's ownership, particularly

given the volume of data generated alongside Triangle. Loyalty customers

sticky and engaged, rewards redemptions stable.