ACA: Model update post Q1

Research evidence excerpt

ACA: Model update post Q1

Credit Agricole S.A.

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

A relatively capital light business mix in combination withCredit Agricole S.A.

generally good cost control allows Casa to generate a higher

24 125 Weeks 27DEC23 - 19MAY26 return than most European banks. Higher capital generation

22 should also allow for higher capital returns. Casa presented its

TARGETTARGET 20.0020.00 20 MTP in November 2025. Under the plan Casa targets an above

18 14% ROTE in 2028 with a cost income ratio of below 55%. Its

CURRENTCURRENT 16.8716.87

16 target CET 1 ratio is 11.4% (Q126 results) and its financial plan

14 assumes it generates excess capital but Casa does not factor in

12 any investment of the excess capital. Casa could use the excess

10 capital for acquisitions and/or return it to shareholders.

60m

40m

20m Risks to rating and price target

2024 2025 2026

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Changes in regulation with respect to capital requirements

ACA FP Rel. MSCI EUROPEAN INDEX MA 40 weeks (SIFI surcharge; treatment of insurance operations under

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target Financial Conglomerate Directive, Solvency 2 and earnings

Valuation (liquidity rules, investment banking).

Our price target of EUR20 values Casa based on 2028

Crédit Agricole has raised its stake in Banco BPM to 22.9%estimates. We apply a price to book model factoring in a

(announced with Q1 2026 results), following the 9th Januarycost of equity of 11.5% and a 3% growth rate. We use the

2026 authorisation from the ECB to cross 20% in the sharesame tangible book valuation methodology as we do with

capital. Crédit Agricole reiterated it does not intend to acquireother banks under our coverage.