TNE: 1H26 Result: Overlooking the Obvious?

Research evidence excerpt

TNE: 1H26 Result: Overlooking the Obvious?

AUD unless otherwise noted.

a revenue miss of -2% and NRR of 114%. Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

But Are We Overlooking the Strong Setup Here? We don't think any of the

shortcomings are necessarily deal-breakers, and with guidance reaffirmed

despite FX headwinds, we think 1H26's underlying performance remains

strong and provides a setup for success across 2H26 and FY27. Plenty of

green shoots to flag: (1) a doubling of capitalised commission costs to ~

$13m reflective of ARR additions later in the 1H, (2) a 10x increase in

showcase pipeline to >$90m, (3) tangible ROI serving as a natural tailwind

for PLUS adoption, (4) "Trojan Horse" upsell opportunities for the ~25-30%

of PLUS subscriptions sold standalone, and (5) signs SaaS+ moving from

concept to preferred implementation choice as all new wins are SaaS+.

Understandable if the market was expecting a little bit more as TNE has

been relatively unscathed by the tech selloff and now trades at a premium

vs. peers, but with guidance reaffirmed, and management confident in

delivering on the FY, we think the market may be overlooking the strong

setup into the 2H and beyond.

Limited Estimate Changes, Retain $33/share Valuation and Outperform

Rating. Trading at 27x 12-mo forward EV/EBITDA is no longer cheap relative

to peers, but we think TNEs AI resiliency, the visibility into 2H acceleration

(locked-in ARR, Showcase pipeline, SaaS+/PLUS momentum), and the long

runway to $1b+ ARR by FY30 justify the premium. Minor estimate changes

see FY26/27 ARR and revenue largely unchanged, with PBT +0%/+1%.

Retain $33/share PT and Outperform rating.

Disseminated: May 19, 2026 12:16EDT; Produced: May 19, 2026 12:16EDT

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