ADA 2026 Preview

Research evidence excerpt

ADA 2026 Preview

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Trung Huynh (Analyst)

(415) 212-0012,

trung.huynh@rbccm.com

Justin Burns, CFA (Vice

President)

(415) 445-8668,

justin.burns@rbccm.com

May 19, 2026

ADA 2026 PreviewRESEARCH Pivotal readouts expected for LLY (TRIUMPH-1) and PFE (VESPER-3)

Our view: ADA is shaping up to be an eventful conference with multiple next-generation T2D/obesity

asset readouts and four corporate investor events.

Eli Lilly's key catalyst is Phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 data for retatrutide in obesity. The 80-week results across

4mg, 8mg, and 12mg doses should establish clear differentiation from Zepbound – we're targeting

~28-30% weight loss. We see LLY shares moving ~+3%/-5% on positive/negative TRIUMPH-1 results.EQUITY Pfizer's Phase 2b VESPER-3 dataset is its critical catalyst. Two metrics matter: (1) Efficacy: whether

titrated arms show dose-dependent weight loss building on the 10-12.3% seen in arms 1 and 3; and

(2) Tolerability: whether titration maintains favorable safety/tolerability. Titrated dosing (0.6-1.2mg)

showed placebo-adjusted nausea of ~13-24% and vomiting of ~9-17% at 12 weeks versus ~50-65% and

~40-60% respectively for untitrated dosing in Phase 1/2, suggesting titration is essential for commercial

viability. Given positioning appears negative on both these, we see the risk reward skewed to the upside

(+5-6%/-3-4%).

Beyond our coverage: Key readouts include Novo's Phase 3 cagrisema REIMAGINE results (likely

limited differentiation), Phase 2 data for Roche's enicepatide, tolerability data for Roche's petrelintide,

body composition data for Boehringer-Zealand's survodutide (potential differentiation on fat-free mass

preservation), and oral GLP-1 updates from Structure Therapeutics and AstraZeneca.

Investor Events