Energy Insights

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Insights

will retain a financial

burden on the energy sector while the revised trajectory of the carbon tax (and min transfer prices for

credits) may prove insufficient to achieve Canada’s net zero GHG emissions target by 2050. A carbon

tax provides transparency surrounding the cost of emitting GHGs but affords less certainty about the

path of emissions because the choice to emit is voluntary if one bears the tax. We believe that Canada’s

climate objectives might be better served via voluntary decarbonization structures like those in the

United States which offer carrots as opposed to compelling behavior with sticks (see Carbon Markets:

The Need for Speed).

Decarbonization Comes with Costs. As we explored in Steering the Future and Awakening the Northern

Giant, decarbonizing the oil sands via the Pathways initiative (involving CCUS) remains important to

futureproofing Canada’s energy markets from incipient societal shifts down the road. The Agreement

frames a shared objective of achieving a 16 Mtpa emissions reduction from Pathways projects by 2045

(including a min of 6 Mtpa as CCUS in service by 2035 amongst other requirements). That said, Canada’s

decarbonized dilbit barrels are unlikely to capture a premium amongst Asian refiners who remain

motivated by market forces. Accordingly, the capital/operating costs (net of incentives) associated with

CCUS in the oil sands must either be borne by the Pathways Alliance or Canada’s taxpayers, neither of

which is ideal.

Made-in-Canada Export Lines Must Compete. Alberta will submit a comprehensive proposal for a

bitumen pipeline extending to British Columbia’s coastline by July 1, 2026, the throughput of which

would be partially/wholly dependent on ongoing upstream investment by Canada’s majors and others.