BIRKENSTOCK HOLDING (+) : ASR stands for A Strong Response

Research evidence excerpt

BIRKENSTOCK HOLDING (+) : ASR stands for A Strong Response

Refinitiv

Investment case, valuation and risks

Birkenstock Holding (Outperform, Target Price USD61)

Investment case

Birkenstock has grown revenue at a 20% CAGR over the last decade, and we expect

it to continue growing revenue in the mid-teens through FY28. Growth will be supported

by 1) expansion of new product categories (clogs), 2) a store rollout just getting

underway, and 3) whitespace opportunities in Asia (China 2% of revs). We believe

BIRK can sustain industry-leading 30%+ EBITDA margins, with room for modest upside

as it optimizes its vertically integrated manufacturing footprint.

Valuation methodology

Our target price is calculated using an EV/EBITDA multiple. We apply an 15x multiple to

our estimated FY26 EBITDA to arrive at our $61 target price.

Risks

To the upside:

More favourable macro environment, continued brand momentum, and casualization

could push top line higher than our expectations. The company could take market share

quicker than expected from other footwear players, including in closed-toe shoes. APMA

expansion could be faster and more successful than expected, which could also lead to

higher-than-expected profitability.

To the downside:

Macro deterioration, recession, material slowdown or inflationary pressure could lead to

lower demand, especially in Europe and USA. Given that the company is fully vertically

integrated (higher fixed costs) and slower top-line development could result in operating

deleverage. The business plan carries greater execution risk in comparison to other

footwear peers given its vertically integrated model.

BNP Paribas Research Birkenstock Holding 21 MAY 2026 page 2

lcecil1@tulane.edu Loren Cecil 05/27/26 06:45:50 PM Tulane University