AUTO TRADER GROUP (+) : Top-line concerns in focus

Research evidence excerpt

AUTO TRADER GROUP (+) : Top-line concerns in focus

EQUITIES

INTERNET & MEDIA

AUTO TRADER GROUP OUTPERFORMPRICE* 496p  TARGET PRICE 615p (UPSIDE 24%)

FLASH NOTE

Top-line concerns in focus

21 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 12:39* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

William Packer BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 207 039 9509 william.packer@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

After this morning’s small FY26 miss and disappointing FY27 guidance (more details here) Auto Trader hosted its in-

person analyst meeting. Key highlights below.

– The company confirmed it had lost c460 dealer customers troughing at c13.5k (reported forecourts at 13.9k

but reflect an average). The customer has won back an unspecified number of dealers in April and May and

guided to 13.7-13.8k for FY27. The company are ‘very encouraged’ by returns but prefer not to share numbers

as they may be flattered by ongoing new business offers. When pushed on where churning dealers were driving

leads, management thought it was a combination of the long tail of alternatives rather than focused on a particular

peer or new route to market.

– Stock ARPR headwinds are expected to continue into FY27 (now a major multi-year headwind). FY26’s

weakness reflected a moderation of volumes rather than speed of sale headwinds (likely partially Deal Builder

rebellion impacted). Management expressed confidence of improving stock ARPR trends over FY27 as comps

ease.

– FY28 pricing event – Apr-26 pricing event NOT the new normal. Auto Trader’s weaker FY27 ARPR guide

reflects a weaker pricing event in April 2026. Management argued the lower pricing reflected the tough trading

backdrop for dealers (a challenging combination of new payroll taxes, stocking loan interest headwinds and car