NATURGY (+) : In pursuit of growth

Research evidence excerpt

NATURGY (+) : In pursuit of growth

EQUITIES

UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY

NATURGY PRICE*OUTPERFORMEUR28.0  TARGET PRICE EUR32FROMNEUTRAL (UPSIDE 14%) TARGET 19%PRICE EPS10%26e EPS15%27e

In pursuit of growth

A higher and more volatile gas price environment is supportive of Naturgy earnings, while concern21 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report on potential clawbacks is reduced. Our increased earnings expectations reveal attractive valuation;

Production time: 05:24* (London time)

the shareholder structure is clearer and more industry-focused, and a strong BS enables a generous

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

dividend policy while supporting both organic and inorganic growth initiatives (+ from =, TP €32).

Manuel Palomo

BNP Paribas SA Company outlook looks (too) prudent(+34) 91 114 83 07

manuel.palomo@bnpparibas.com Following 1Q 26 results, we have refreshed our energy price assumptions to match current forward

curves, updated the FX scenario, and revised liberal market margins. We have also increased capex

forecasts for the regulated Spanish segment and incorporated the latest Spanish gas distribution

regulatory proposal. Consequently, our FY 26 net profit estimate is 8% above the company’s

guidance, and our FY 28 projection is 6% higher than Bloomberg consensus.

Time to pursue a growth strategy

The shareholding structure is shifting toward a more “industrial” profile, and the Board has voted

unanimously to pursue growth opportunities – both organic and inorganic. Potential overhang risk

has been markedly reduced after BlackRock (via GIP) completed its exit. Naturgy’s balance sheet

remains robust, with net debt/EBITDA at 2.2x as of 1Q26, giving the company ample financial

firepower. Management continues to adhere to a disciplined financial policy, so we view M&A