EDP : Top integrated utility in Southern Europe

Research evidence excerpt

EDP : Top integrated utility in Southern Europe

EQUITIES

UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY

EDP OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR4.44  TARGET PRICE EUR5.2 (UPSIDE 17%)

EDP ADR OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD52.1  TARGET PRICE USD61.2 (UPSIDE 17%)

Top integrated utility in Southern Europe

Improved outlook for FY2621 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report At 1Q26 results, EDP management raised FY26 guidance to €5.2bn of EBITDA and €1.3bn of net

Production time: 05:21* (London time) profit on higher investments, efficiencies and returns in Networks, stronger hydro and improved price

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities expectation in 2H26 in FlexGen & Clients and EDPR.

Manuel Palomo

BNP Paribas SA We see room for upside beyond 2026

(+34) 91 114 83 07 At the 1Q26 presentation, EDP reaffirmed its FY28 targets of €5.2bn EBITDA and €1.3bn NP, figuresmanuel.palomo@bnpparibas.com

that align with Bloomberg consensus and appear conservative given today’s energy market backdrop

and our expectation for structural improvements in specific businesses, such as pumped hydro

storage. Our own forecasts are ~9% above the company’s FY28 NP guidance and do not incorporate

any potential upside from DC transactions or additional renewable capacity upgrades.

Outstanding exposure to storage

The Iberian market is saturated with renewables – especially solar PV – such that installed capacity

now exceeds peak summer demand. Consequently, electricity prices often sit at €0/MWh for

extended periods, with gas-fired plants setting the marginal price for the remainder of the day. This

environment creates a “blue-sky” scenario for storage (mainly pumped hydro). EPD pumped hydro

output has increased by 38% since 2020, and spreads have widened, reflecting the excess

renewable supply and higher gas prices.