Genting Singapore (GENS SP) (Reduce) - Downgrade to Reduce on slow ramp-up

Research evidence excerpt

Genting Singapore (GENS SP) (Reduce) - Downgrade to Reduce on slow ramp-up

Global Markets Research

Genting Singapore GENS.SI GENS SP 12 May 2026

EQUITY: GAMING, HOTELS & LEISURE

RatingDowngrade to Reduce on slow ramp-up Down from Buy Reduce

Target price

Reduced fromVIP rolling chip volume market share touches a new low SGD 0.63 SGD 0.95

1Q26 earnings disappoint again due to low VIP market share and higher costs Closing12 May 2026price SGD 0.69

GENS’s 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA was a significant miss, accounting for 18% and 19% of

our previous and Bloomberg consensus estimates for FY26F, respectively. Adjusted net Implied upside -8.7%

income formed only 12% of our previous FY26F estimate. The key reasons for the miss,

in our view, were: (1) an unexpected 24% q-q decline in VIP rolling chip volume to Market Cap (USD mn) 6,557.3

SGD5.6bn, contrary to seasonal trends where 1Q has typically been the peak quarter for ADT (USD mn) 21.9

gaming; this fall is stark vs Marina Bay Sands (MBS)’s +34% q-q jump in VIP rolling chip

volume; GENS’s VIP rolling market share dropped to an all-time low of 20%; and (2) Relative performance chart

adjusted EBITDA margin compressed to 29.5% in 1Q26 from 37.7% in 1Q25 despite

revenue declining by only 3%, representing negative operational leverage. Management

highlighted elevated costs from ongoing IT infrastructure modernization, higher marketing

and promotion expenses, pre-opening costs for new activations, phased asset refresh and

hotel renovations continuing through 2026, and enterprise integration investments.

Downgrade to Reduce

We are downgrading GENS to Reduce from Buy as the pace of recovery from RWS 2.0

investments has proven materially slower than anticipated, prompting us to reassess our

thesis.