Lupin (LPC IN) (Buy) - Maintain Buy

Research evidence excerpt

Lupin (LPC IN) (Buy) - Maintain Buy

Global Markets Research

Lupin LUPN.NS LPC IN 12 May 2026

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS

RatingMaintain Buy Remains Buy

Target priceStrong growth in ex US markets should support valuation Increased from INR 2,675multiples; lift TP to INR2675 INR 2,580

Action: Maintain Buy; TP lifted to INR2,675 (implied upside of 18.6%) Closing11 May 2026price INR 2,256

We lift FY27F/28F earnings by 9%/5% following LPC’s strong 4QFY26, which was driven by

higher revenues across markets and the benefit from INR depreciation (refer to Another Implied upside +18.6%

strongquarter and 4QFY26conferencecalltakeaways for further details). Over FY26-29F

we expect double-digit growth across key markets outside of the US. For the US, we Market Cap (USD mn) 10,822.7

assume revenue decline from the current run-rate of USD1.5bn (annualising 4QFY26) to ADT (USD mn) 29.2

~USD1.1bn in FY29F. Our estimates do not factor in any large contribution from product-

specific opportunities. We expect FY27F will be key in terms of many complex filings. Relative performance chart

Management targets 8-9 product filings in respiratory and the biosimilar etanercept.

Successful filings of these products can help build investors’ expectations of high-value

launches in FY29F and beyond.

Our new TP of INR2,675 is based on 30xFY28F adjusted EPS (ex gJynarque) of INR89.1.

We raise our valuation multiple to 30x from 28x. The earnings mix following the erosion in

US revenues was driven by India and Emerging Markets. We expect FY28F EBITDA

contribution from these markets at 57%. Based on SOTP we estimate fair valuation range

at 27-32x. Based on our model, India and EM should contribute almost 75% of the fair

value.

Market concern on US business seems unwarranted