Julius Baer: 4M IMS - Strong P&L (client activity, cost control), though weaker NNM

Research evidence excerpt

Julius Baer: 4M IMS - Strong P&L (client activity, cost control), though weaker NNM

Equity Research

European Banks

22 May 2026

Julius Baer

4M IMS - Strong P&L (client

activity, cost control), though First Look

BAER.S/BAER SE OVERWEIGHTweaker NNM

European Banks POSITIVE

Strong P&L driven by exceptional Q1 activity and tight costs Price Target CHF 71.00

should support the shares, with no one-offs. NNM was softer Price (21-May-26) CHF 68.10

but target reaffirmed and RM hiring is progressing. We expect PotentialSource: Bloomberg,Upside/DownsideBarclays Research +4.3%

consensus upgrades, though partly offset as activity

European Banksnormalises after an unusually strong start to the year.

Flora Bocahut

+33 (0)1 4458 3131

Our view: P&L performance surprises positively, helped by exceptionally strong client activity in flora.bocahut@barclays.com

the first three months (eased in April) and good cost discipline. We expect the strong P&L to BBI, Paris

support the shares today, together with the fact that there was no one-off. NNM was however a

bit lower than expected but BAER reconfirms the NNM target of 4-5% by '28 and highlights

having on boarded more than 30 RMs in 4M26 and having hiring discussions with another 50. We

think these results will lead to consensus upgrades, although less than at face value given the

abnormally strong client activity levels in Q1.

AuM and NNM: AUM of CHF 528bn (+1% vs. CHF521bn in FY25 but below AWP consensus of CHF

534bn), driven by "strong equity market performance" (negative currency effect) and NNM of

CHF 3bn (vs. AWP consensus of CHF 5.3bn), which we calculate corresponds to 1.7% annualized

(compares to 2.5% in 4M25 and 2.9% in FY25).

P&L performance: Gross margin increased to 90bps, reflecting "exceptionally high activity-

driven income".