Canada & Latin America Banks: Canadian Banks 2Q26 EPS Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Canada & Latin America Banks: Canadian Banks 2Q26 EPS Preview

Equity Research

22 May 2026

Canada & Latin America Banks

Canadian Banks 2Q26 EPS Preview

We expect Canadian Bank 2Q26 earnings to modestly

decrease from 1Q26 on seasonally lower trading and day

count though increase y-o-y. Still, we expect modest balance Canada & Latin America Banks POSITIVE

Unchangedsheet growth, lower NII, lower fees and expenses, benign

credit quality and active share repurchases. Canada & Latin America Banks

Brian Morton, CFA

+1 212 526 2163

UPDATE This publication is an update to 'Canada & Latin America Banks: Canadian Banks 2Q26 brian.morton@barclays.com

EPS Preview', originally published on 22 May 2026 at 00:10 EDT. We have updated the quarterly BCI, US

estimates in Figures 34-45 to correctly reflect the published quarterly data for 2026.

The 2Q26 Canadian Banks earnings season starts on Wednesday, May 27. For 2Q26, we

expect overall results to reflect a seasonal decline from 1Q26 though still increasing mid-teens

percentage from 2Q25. We are above 2Q26 consensus estimates for one name (BMO) but below

for the other five.Overall, we look for modest balance sheet growth, modestly higher NIMs

though slightly lower NII on day count, seasonally lower fee income and expenses, benign but

normalizing credit quality and active share repurchases. Looking at recent results from US

banks, we note all but one exceeded consensus EPS, though only about half exceeded NII

forecasts. Within capital markets, US Banks noted that January was a particularly strong month

for trading which was already recorded in 1Q26 for Canadian Banks.

Key drivers. NII/NIM: Overall, we expect net interest income at the median bank to rise 6% y-o-y

though decline modestly linked quarter on day count.