Airtel Africa: Mobile money opportunity intact, Costs and capex in focus

Research evidence excerpt

Airtel Africa: Mobile money opportunity intact, Costs and capex in focus

Equity Research

Emerging Markets Telecoms

22 May 2026

Airtel Africa

Mobile money opportunity intact,

Costs and capex in focus

Mobile money upside intact, with core growth driven by data AAF.L/AAF LN OVERWEIGHT

and subscriber adds. Near-term pressures from energy costs Unchanged

and capex persist, while IPO delay defers value. Strong Emerging Markets Telecoms UnchangedNEUTRAL

fundamentals support the long-term story. We remain OW. Price Target GBP 3.70

lowered -1% from GBP 3.75

Mobile money optionality intact, with energy costs and capex in focus: Airtel Africa Price (20-May-26) GBP 3.34

continues to present a compelling growth profile, underpinned by a significant mobile money Potential Upside/Downside +10.7%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Researchopportunity given low penetration (~41% of subscribers ex-Nigeria). We expect core growth to

remain strong, driven by resilient data demand and solid subscriber additions across the

footprint. Near-term profitability remains exposed to energy costs, with management indicating Market Cap (GBP mn) 12194

that a 10% increase in fuel prices could impact P&L by ~$35–40m. While the delayed mobile Shares Outstanding (mn) 3648.74

money IPO implies a deferral of value crystallisation, the investment case remains supported by Free Float (%) 33.49

strong fundamentals (including solid FCF generation and low data/smartphone penetration 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.3

driving structural upside). This is, however, partly offset by rising cost pressures and increased Dividend Yield (%) 1.60

capex guidance, reflecting ongoing investment to support network expansion and growth Return on Equity TTM (%) 24.10

ambitions.