Australian Economic Comment "April CPI preview: easing to 4.4% y/y on Go..."

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Economic Comment "April CPI preview: easing to 4.4% y/y on Go..."

in the Heavy Vehicle Road User Charge would indirectly limit/delay the

pass-through of freight cost increases to parts of the CPI basket. We assume these

policies expire on 30 June, but there is a risk it is extended. 2) Temporarily free

public transport announced by the Victorian and Tasmanian state governments is

expected to see a ~32% fall in urban transport CPI, subtracting ~11bps from April

CPI.

2. Annual increase in private health insurance premiums of 4.4%. The

announced 4.41% increase in private health insurance premiums from 1 April is a

~70bp increase from the 3.73% last year. Our insurance analysts estimate a

premium-weighted average of 4.47%, only 10bps above the increase in 2025.

3. Consumer durable goods are seasonally strong in April, but A$ has also

increased. Various consumer durables typically exhibit seasonal strength in April,

as sales events and discounting earlier in the year wrap up. For instance, garments

are typically at their most expensive in April. The rise in transport and distribution

costs given higher fuel input costs will add to pressures, but the ~11% y/y rise in

the Australian dollar will mitigate some of this impact.

4. Housing CPI will increasingly be driven by new dwellings. Rents are

expected to lift 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y, with upside risks given the 5.7% y/y pace

which advertised rents is growing, and with rental vacancy rates remaining low.

More importantly, new dwellings CPI is expected to see a 0.9% m/m lift to 4.8%

y/y, which would be the highest since Aug-24. Industry data suggests building

materials suppliers have increasingly been putting through large price rises since

April. However, it's possible these increases may show up more fully from May.