European Economic Comment "Eurozone PMIs: Loss in momentum worsens" Cluse

Research evidence excerpt

European Economic Comment "Eurozone PMIs: Loss in momentum worsens" Cluse

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

European Economic Comment Economics

Europe including UKEurozone PMIs: Loss in momentum worsens

Reinhard Cluse

Economist

Weak May PMIs suggest clear downside risk to Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 reinhard.cluse@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 6722

The Eurozone Composite PMI fell 1.3 points to a 31-month low of 47.5 (consensus:

48.8) - the second monthly reading below the neutral level of 50 - with declines across Franziska Fischer

Economistboth manufacturing and services. The Manufacturing PMI was down 0.8 points to 51.4

franziska.fischer@ubs.com

(consensus 51.8) with weaker readings for output, new orders, new export orders and +41-44-239 2054

employment all pointing to a broad-based deterioration in the sector. The Services PMI

fell 1.2 points to a 63-month low of 46.4, also with weak details, including further Felix Huefner

significant declines in new business and export orders; perhaps most telling, services

felix.huefner@ubs.com

employment fell for the first time since January 2021. Across both sectors, new orders +49-69-1369 8280

and new export orders are now firmly contracting, and employment too. Aggregate

price pressures continued to rise, but with input prices (which reached a 42-month high Anna Titareva

in May) up by more than output prices (38-month high), suggesting margin

anna.titareva@ubs.com

compression. The aggregate 1-year business outlook was broadly unchanged from April +44-20-7568 5083

(at a 32-month low of 54.8), but sharply down from a 21-month high in February. The

May PMIs bring the Apr/May average to 48.1, below the Q1 average of 51.3, signalling

not only a slowdown in activity, but potentially even the risk of a contraction. That said,