US Daily Data Recap "Claims still low, single-family permits slip" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "Claims still low, single-family permits slip" Wilcox

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasClaims still low, single-family permits slip

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

The details of the Q1 advance quarterly services survey from the Census Bureau today amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

indicate slightly less services spending and intellectual property product investment than

estimated by the BEA in the advance GDP release. We expect the second estimate for Q1 Jonathan Pingle

GDP released next week revises down 0.1pp to 1.9% (saar). Economist

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

Initial claims fell 3K to 209K in the week ending May 16, with the 203K four-week

Alan Detmeistermoving average at its lowest level since January 2024, indicating that claims remain low

and stable despite some recent noise. Continuing claims edged up 6K to 1782K but also alan.detmeister@ubs.com

remain at a low level and have trended down relative to last year, suggesting ongoing +1-212-713 1222

labor market stability.

Abigail Watt

Despite total starts and permits beating expectations in April, gains were driven by abigail.watt@ubs.com

volatile multifamily activity, while single-family indicators weakened. Single-family starts +1-212-882 6929

and permits both declined, with permits falling to their lowest level since last August, Jalen Nichols

signaling softer forward momentum. The slowdown may reflect builder caution amid Economist

elevated unsold inventories, demand headwinds, and high materials costs. In the week jalen.nichols@ubs.com

ending May 22, the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 15 bps to 6.51%, a +1-212-882 6905

high since August.

Regional Fed manufacturing surveys from the FRB of Philadelphia and FRB of Kansas