US Economics Weekly "An even more K-shaped consumer?" Watt

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics Weekly "An even more K-shaped consumer?" Watt

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

US Economics Weekly Economics

AmericasAn even more K-shaped consumer?

Abigail Watt

Economist

Economic Comment: an even more K-shaped consumer? abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

Talk of "K-shaped" consumption is everywhere. This week we bring together the

insights from a series of FRBNY papers on the topic. We also consider how the gas price Jonathan Pingle

Economistshock could exacerbate this trend, with the impact of this unevenly felt, and the buffer

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

from tax refunds unable to sustain spending for some. The Economic Comment begins +1-212-713 2225

on page 3.

Alan Detmeister

Bonus essays: the pace of RMPs and declining inventory-to-sales ratios

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

We also summarize a key speech this week from Roberto Perli, Manager of the System +1-212-713 1222

of Open Market Account, outlining what will determine the pace of reserve

Amanda Wilcox

management purchases (RMPs) going forward, see page 5. We use six charts to show Economist

what has driven the recent decline in inventory-to-sales ratios, see page 7. amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

ICYMI — Labor Market Disruption Part 1: AI Is Coming

Jalen Nichols

We expect Artificial Intelligence to be disruptive. We expect AI to be a labor replacing Economist

technology and not just labor augmenting. We do not think AI's impact will result in jalen.nichols@ubs.com

structurally higher unemployment, all else equal. Reconciling that may sound confusing, +1-212-882 6905

but we expect to discuss that in a 4-part series on labor market disruption and AI. We

published part one of the series this week laying out important features of the structure