ASEAN Internet "Will H2 be different after a disappointing H1?" Killa

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN Internet "Will H2 be different after a disappointing H1?" Killa

Powered by Lab Global21 MayResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

ASEAN Internet Equities

Asia EmergingWill H2 be different after a disappointing H1?

Internet Services

Navin Killa

Raising PT for Sea, lowering PT for Grab and GoTo; Maintain BUY Analyst

We raise our PT for Sea from US$120 to US$125, while cutting our PT for Grab (from US navin.killa@ubs.com

$6 to US$5.9) and GoTo (from Rp100 to Rp75). We maintain Buy ratings on all three +852-2971 7594

stocks. The higher PT for Sea is driven mainly by higher adj. EBITDA estimates for Shopee Calvin Chur

and Garena, supported by a better-than-expected Q126 and our analysis of recent high- Associate Analyst

frequency data which shows both GMV growth and competitive dynamics remain calvin.chur@ubs.com

stable. In contrast, the lower PTs for Grab and GoTo largely reflect downward revisions to +65-6495 3992

mobility adj. EBITDA estimates, as we model in Indonesia's proposed reduction in

mobility take rate cap to 8%. For Grab, some of the impact has been offset by stronger-

than-expected growth in deliveries where it continues to gain share and where market

growth continues to surprise positively.

Sea: High frequency data indicates continued momentum

E-commerce: Looking at e-commerce pricing, receipts, take rate and app performance

metrics, we conclude: 1) Competitive intensity in ASEAN remains stable, as Shopee's

price gap vs TikTok Shop is broadly unchanged; 2) Take rates continue to trend higher,

with Shopee implementing hikes across most of ASEAN and TikTok Shop following in

May'26; 3) As per receipts data, Shopee's ASEAN GMV growth remains robust at

+33.2% YoY in Apr'26; 4) In Taiwan, Coupang's MoM MAU share recovery post data