Thailand Market Strategy "Broadening rally or same few winners?" Manoonpol

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand Market Strategy "Broadening rally or same few winners?" Manoonpol

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

Thailand Market Strategy Equity Strategy

ThailandBroadening rally or same few winners?

Alex Manoonpol

Analyst

Raise SET index target to 1,450 on EPS upgrades in the energy sector alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

+662-613 5770

We raise our SET index target to 1,450 (16x PE), supported by earnings upgrades in the

energy sector. The index is now trading close to its pre-conflict highs (+17% YTD in US Grace Lim

Economist$ terms), suggesting that the market is largely looking through the economic

grace-k.lim@ubs.com

implications of higher oil prices. However, recent earnings upgrades have been narrowly +65-6495 5965

concentrated in energy and petrochemicals, and YTD performance has similarly been

driven by a limited group of names, notably DELTA and PTTGC. The key question for H2, Peach Patharavanakul

in our view, is whether this strength can broaden to the rest of the market. On the

peach.patharavanakul@ubs.com

positive side, our UBS economist revised Thailand's 2026 GDP growth forecast up to +662-613 5717

2.2% (from 1.4% previously), primarily driven by short-term stimulus measures and

continued data centre investments. That said, our earnings yield gap model points to Sukrit Friestad

potential compression in valuation multiples in the absence of further earnings upgrades

sukrit.friestad@ubs.com

(UBSe: flat growth ex-energy for FY26). Overall, we see the market's risk-reward skewed +662-613 5732

modestly to the downside given the risk of profit-taking in YTD outperformers but

Warayut Luangmettakul, CFAcontinue to see selective stock picking opportunities.

warayut.luangmettakul@ubs.com

Q126 earnings wrap: solid, but still uneven +662-613 5753