MENA Equity Research "MENA high frequency recovery indicators" Peace

Research evidence excerpt

MENA Equity Research "MENA high frequency recovery indicators" Peace

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MENA Equity Research Equities

EMEA EmergingMENA high frequency recovery indicators

Financial

Jon Peace

We consolidate a heat map of MENA market activity Analyst

In this note we use UBS Evidence Lab data to track a number of high frequency metrics in jon.peace@ubs.com

the MENA region. By following weekly data such as real estate transactions, shipping +44-20-7567 0638

and airline flow, hotel occupancy rates, traffic volume and certain app usage (such as Luis Schmidt

home delivery, e-commerce and payments), we can potentially gauge the speed of Associate Analyst

recovery from disruption in the underlying economy which has weighed quite heavily on luis.schmidt@ubs.com

certain sectors (such as Real Estate companies). +44-20-7567 0847

Alexander Estefanous, CFA

Sixth week of ceasefire shows improvement in real estate in Dubai and air Analyst

traffic in Saudi Arabia alex.estefanous@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0508

The sixth week of the US-Iran ceasefire saw continued disruption, but with improvement

in real estate transactions in Dubai, forward looking air seat capacity in MENA, and air Ulyana Lenvalskaya

traffic in Saudi Arabia. Crossings in the Strait of Hormuz slowed to not more than 5 daily Analyst

(versus up to 13 daily the prior week). Saudi remains less disrupted than MENA peers. ulyana.lenvalskaya@ubs.com

+971-443-64776

Dubai real estate: sale and rental transactions at -14% and -12% (vs -34% and Anna Kishmariya

-9% prior week) in the 7-day average to 19 May, versus the Feb 2026 average; Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

Air seat capacity: from Europe at -37% (vs -45% the prior week) as of 18 May;

+44-20-7568 7999