Global Pulp & Paper "P&P Digester: Supply disruptions slowly accelerate" Greiner

Research evidence excerpt

Global Pulp & Paper "P&P Digester: Supply disruptions slowly accelerate" Greiner

Global Research

21 May 2026ab

Global Pulp & Paper Equities

Latin AmericaP&P Digester: Supply disruptions slowly

accelerate Forest Products & Paper

Caio Greiner

Analyst

caio.greiner@ubs.com

Pulp supply disruptions are rising again, but remain below the level needed for a +55-11-2767 6294

stronger price recovery. TTOBMA data shows total pulp unexpected downtime at

Andrew Jones

775kt in 2026YTD, up 21% y/y from 641kt in 2025YTD. The increase is broad-based,

but led by softwood. SW downtime rose to 192kt, up 178% YTD, albeit from a very andrew-i.jones@ubs.com

low base of 69kt last year. HW downtime increased to 283kt, up 18% y/y, from 241kt +44-20-7901 6545

in 2025YTD. At the margin, monthly disruptions have accelerated to 241Kt in May

Timothy Handerson

(also mostly SW), which is above the average of the last 6-9 months of ~150kt/

month. The data is directionally supportive, but still below peaks of 400-450kt/ timothy.handerson@ubs.com

month seen is recent years. For context, full-year disruptions reached 2.4Mt in 2024 +62-21-2554 5000

and 2.1Mt in 2025. All of this suggests the 2026YTD uptick is helping sentiment,

Sharon Ding

particularly in softwood, but remains insufficient to materially tighten the global Analyst

pulp market on its own. We believe this will be more than offset by the capacity sharon.ding@ubs.com

additions expected for the 4Q26 onwards, still elevated spare capacity and surplus +852-2971 6284

in China, and seasonally weak summer months right around the corner. In our view,

Anojja Shah

HW prices could soften going forward, with SW experiencing a mild rebound. Daily Analyst

resale prices are down to US$583/t, US$5/t lower w/w. anojja.shah@ubs.com

+1-312-525 4310