N.A. Chems & Pkg "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Research evidence excerpt

N.A. Chems & Pkg "Fun with Fertilizers" Beaumont

Offshore demand remains supportive, with Canpotex sold out through mid-year,

while potash markets have seen limited disruption from the Middle East other than

inflated logistics costs. We continue to expect seasonal price declines as the

quarter progresses, but this has yet to eventuate with roughly stable pricing in

recent weeks. While 2Q pricing is tracking slightly above estimates, we see margin

upside as more limited with the increases partially linked to freight costs. Positive

potash pricing trends remain a modest positive for producers (NTR, MOS, IPI).

Crop pricing: Corn futures for 2026/2027 are up ~$0.25 since the Middle East

conflict on lower production expectations tied to reduced fertilizer applications

globally ($45/acre impact). Soybean futures have increased by ~$0.40-0.55 since

the conflict ($25/acre impact). We expect 2027 crop futures to continue to rise as

lower production and tightened stock/use ratios become apparent through the

year.

Ag Research recap: Where to from here? (link), Our Post 1Q Earnings Views: IPI

(link), LXU (link) MOS (link), NTR (link), CF (link). Earnings First Takes: MOS (link),

NTR (link), CF (link), IPI (link), LXU (link). Ag Channel Checks (link, link), Generic

Crop Chem prices move sharply higher; positive for FMC/CTVA (link), Monthly

Crop Chem pricing & Brazil imports update (link), NTR D/G to Sell, MOS D/G to

Neutral, updated ferts outlook (link), 2026 Global Ag Outlook deep dive across

NPK, ag macro, seeds & crop chems in our 2026 Ag outlook (link).

Where's the downside support on Mosaic? What are the possible reactions if

marginal phosphate production margins remain negative further into 2026?

Marginal phosphate production margins are currently negative based on spot raw