FDX - Introducing Standalone Models

Research evidence excerpt

FDX - Introducing Standalone Models

Airfreight & Surface Transportation

Airfreight & Logistics - Market Weight

FEDEX CORP. (FDX) May 19, 2026

FDX - Introducing Standalone Models Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $374.97

In today's note, we're introducing standalone FDX Remain-co and FDXF models Price Target:

ahead of the upcoming Freight spin on June 1. We reiterate our Outperform rating $446

on consolidated FDX. Prior: $425

% Upside:

18.9%

●Initial Remain-co Model. Our FDX Remain-co model can be found here. We're View FDX Model

modeling C26 Remain-co EPS of $18.35, including headwinds from the new View Comp Table

pilot deal and stranded costs (we estimate ~$400M/year combined). Looking Company Information

further ahead, with continued domestic pricing strength, we see potential for 52-Week Range $217 - $403

Remain-co to approach its C29 earnings targets a year early, and are modeling Market Cap. (MM) $89,470

Enterprise Value (MM) $119,741

$26 of C28 EPS including capital allocation with cash generation, and proceeds Shares Out. (MM) 238.6

from the FDXF spin (dividend and sale of 20% of the stock). Avg. Value Traded (MM) $525.20

●Initial Freight Model. Our initial FDXF model can be found here. We're Adj. Debt to Cap 58.8% SI% of Float 1.8%

modeling C26 FDXF EPS of $5.15 but note that FDXF will have a much lower FCF Yield 4.7%

share count accounting for the 1-for-2 share distribution as part of the spin. EV/ EBITDA 10.5x

We are assuming 50bp of margin headwinds from TSAs, although this should

at least partially be offset by an improving LTL backdrop. Looking ahead, we 450

believe FDXF is increasingly focused on yield growth again, which should 400

support a return to margin improvement and upside potential over time to 350

300 its 15% margin target.