AstraZeneca: Three key events in 2H26 (Eplon, SERENA-4, AVANZAR); deep dive of our views

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AstraZeneca: Three key events in 2H26 (Eplon, SERENA-4, AVANZAR); deep dive of our views

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AstraZeneca

Three key events in 2H26 (Eplon, SERENA-

4, AVANZAR); deep dive of our views

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 16,500 GBp | Price: 13,950 GBp

3 key events in 2H26; deep-dive reminder of our views 21 May 2026

With AZN headed into a busy 2H26 path, we remind of our views on key assets. We are Equity

most bullish on eplontersen (high PoS given Amvuttra and large commercial

opportunity), most cautious on SERENA-4 (persevERA fail dampens enthusiasm with not

Key Changesenough visibility on any baseline differences) and directionally positive on AVANZAR

(QCS, study delays possibly not related to control arm). We tweak our EPS estimates on (US$) Previous Current

updated product forecasts. We reiterate our Buy rating. 2026E EPS 10.24 10.319

Eplontersen high PoS; debates likely in details 2027E2028E EPSEPS 11.8513.47 11.99613.753

Eplontersen is AZN’s TTR silencer for cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) with PIII CARDIO-

TTRansform due 2H26E, for which we think commercial success of ALNY’s Amvuttra Sachin Jain, CFA >>

(2026 guide $4.4-4.7bn) supports a large market opportunity. A hit on primary endpoint is Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

largely de-risked by Amvuttra’s positive pivotal HELIOS-B trial. Debates are likely on 1) +44 20 7995 9676

benefit vs 28% on-label for Amvuttra and 2) whether stat sig benefit in the +tafamidis s.jain@bofa.com

subgroup (we assume adequately powered) but depends on progress down stat hierarchy. Charlie Haywood >>

Research Analyst

SERENA-4 in 1L breast cancer; cautious post persevERA MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 4165

AZN’s SERD camizestrant has PIII data in 1L metastatic breast cancer (SERENA-4) due charlie.haywood@bofa.com

2H26E.