1Q Recap: Exceptional Results + Conservative Guide; Reiterate Buy

Research evidence excerpt

1Q Recap: Exceptional Results + Conservative Guide; Reiterate Buy

May 12, 2026 Super Group Limited

(SGHC, Buy, $16 PT)DIGITAL Clark Lampen

1Q Recap: Exceptional Results + Conservative Guide; Reiterate Buy (212) 882-2337 clampen@btig.com

Joseph Spiezio WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: Yesterday evening, Super Group reported 1Q26 results (617) 345-4041 jspiezio@btig.com

that exceeded our Revenue and EBITDA expectations by a MSD margin on a headline Company DataGAMING basis, inclusive of $28M/$11M of results headwinds. Ex-those headwinds, SGHC would

have topped our Revenue forecast by 9% and EBITDA by 13%, and Q1 performance Closing Price $13.18

makes reiterated full year guidance appear conservative. Using our estimates as a Price Target $16.00

benchmark, we estimate that SGHC is carrying ~$24M/$8M of upside from Q1 with Market Cap (M) $6,714.75

a results tailwind for 2Q, based on our best-guess assessment of QTD soccer results, Enterprise Value (M) $5,003.46EQUITY

and believe guidance for the balance of the year is simply prudent heading into the Shares Out (M) 509.47

World Cup. Framing the reported and ex-results performance against one another Avg Daily Vol-3 Months (M) 3.18

($24M/$8M vs. $52M/$19M ex-results impacts), it's understandable that SGHC would

want to carry some of the Q1 cushion into the tournament, given an expanded and Dividend / Yield $0.04 / 0.3%

seemingly less predictable group stage. Of note, 40% of SGHC's operating footprint Revenue (M)

is participating in the World Cup and those countries represent 88% of revenue and FY Dec 2025A 2026E 2027ERESEARCH

73% of GGR, so if the tournament is book-friendly we see a high probability of healthy Q1 517.00 587.87 -

2Q results and raised guidance in August. As part of yesterday's report, SGHC also Q2 579.40 653.81 -