Eli Lilly & Co.: Mounjaro+Zepbound Script Tracker

Research evidence excerpt

Eli Lilly & Co.: Mounjaro+Zepbound Script Tracker

UpdateMwrite an oral GLP-1 script, ~¾ of scripts are from lower frequency writers and 80%

scripts are from PCPs (vs. 20% specialists) all suggesting expansion of the market.

Novo's oral Wegovy recorded ~143,000/120,900 TRx/NRx this week vs.

~137,300/117,700 last week. However, Novo noted that early script data excludes

certain channels (NovoCare and telehealth) until integration with IQVIA, so will miss

scripts from some cash channels at the beginning of the launch. Novo said it is

encouraged by current dynamics, with TRx of ~89k in the week of March 13

reflecting a ~60% capture rate (vs. ~50% at the FY results in February). Novo noted

on 2/11/26 that more than 246k patients in the US are on oral Wegovy and most of

them are new to the GLP-1 category (LINK; vs. ~170k on 4Q25 EPS on 2/4/26). On

2/19/26, IQVIA disclosed that it will implement a projection adjustment for Wegovy

in the mail channel, effective with the data week ending 2/13. The estimated impact

is +5-7% (~+11-17k scripts), with an additional impact of +4% (~+13k scripts) for the

week ending 2/20. LLY noted on 4Q EPS that they are very encouraged by what

they see with oral Wegovy (i.e., mostly new starts) and it validates their view that

orals will expand the market. See Exhibit 4 within for our launch sensitivity

analysis. Oral Wegovy represents ~13.0% of total GLP-1 volumes for obesity.

Our sensitivity analysis assesses the TRx volumes Foundayo would need to

achieve to reach VA consensus U.S. sales of ~$1.3bn in 2026. For this analysis we

now assume a net price of ~$262/month, which is what we model for the year. Our

assumptions also incorporate oral Wegovy trends adjusted for data not captured by