G10 FX Strategy: Our Latest Views

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX Strategy: Our Latest Views

Update

May 22, 2026 02:43 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MG10 FX Strategy | Global David S. Adams, CFA

Strategist

Our Latest Views David.S.Adams@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +44 20 7425-3518

Andrew M Watrous

Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy views including key StrategistAndrew.Watrous@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5287

fundamental catalysts and technical levels to watch. Molly Nickolin

Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3592

Key Takeaways

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

We are bearish on the DXY as we look to fade any 'bear market rally' in the DXY, Koichi Sugisaki

particularly if June 10th CPI shows a reversal in shelter inflation trends. Strategist

Koichi.Sugisaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8428

We are bullish on EUR, CHF, NOK, and SEK, and see upside risks to AUD.

We see downside risks to GBP.

USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish

Investor focus on potential Fed hikes could lead to a 'bear market rally' in the DXY,

but we would fade this move particularly if the June 10th CPI print shows a reversal

in shelter inflation trends.

EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish

EUR/USD faces near-term risks both from weaker PMI data amplifying growth

concerns and rising investor expectations for Fed hikes, though we think the 1.14

support level will hold and offers value for medium-term buyers.

JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Neutral

We turn neutral on JPY risk skew, as it recovered near 160.00. Although the

external conditions remain unfavorable on JPY, the concern for another potential FX

intervention could prevent investors from chasing USD/JPY higher above 160.00, in

our view.

GBP View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish

GBP faces relative headwinds on crosses from weaker inflation, PMI, and