Euro Inflation Preview: Further Up

Research evidence excerpt

Euro Inflation Preview: Further Up

Idea

May 22, 2026 11:13 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.MEuro Inflation Preview | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Further Up Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Euro area May HICP will be released on 2 June (the largest four Claire A Thuerwaechter

countries publish on 29 May). We forecast headline inflation EconomistClaire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

rising to 3.2%Y and core to 2.4%Y. The upside drivers are energy Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

and services base effects. We continue to see a material pass- Chiara Zangarelli

Economist

through of energy to other items only later. Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

Energy once again an upward driver for headline inflation: We forecast EA Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.

Gabriela Silova

headline inflation at 3.2%Y in May from 3.0%Y in April. Energy inflation should rise

further, but we expect a smaller uptick than in recent months (11.6%Y from 10.8%Y). Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

Core inflation up on a large increase in services inflation from volatile items: We Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc

Skander Garchi Casal

forecast core inflation to rise to 2.4%Y from 2.2%Y as services inflation increases to Economist

3.3%Y from 3.0%Y. The driver for the uptick is a reversal in the annual inflation rate Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

of volatile tourism-related items (especially air fares and package holidays) after a

large drop in April. Aside from volatile items, the disinflation process in underlying Exhibit 1 : Headline HICP at 3.2%Y and core