Week Ahead in Latin America: Andeans Growth: Resilient Demand, Divergent Fundamentals

Research evidence excerpt

Week Ahead in Latin America: Andeans Growth: Resilient Demand, Divergent Fundamentals

Idea

May 22, 2026 07:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MWeek Ahead in Latin America | Latin America Julia Lobato Barbosa

Economist

Andeans Growth: Resilient Julia.Lobato.Barbosa@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +55 11 3048-6016

Nicolas Eterovic

EconomistDemand, Divergent Nicolas.Eterovic@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1245

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+Fundamentals Fernando D Sedano

Chief LatAm Ex-Brazil Economist

This week, we analyze the diverging growth stories across the Fernando.Sedano@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6605

Ana Madeira

Andean region, with Chile softening, Colombia overheating, and Economist

Peru sustaining a more balanced recovery. Next week, focus on Ana.Madeira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-9582

Thiago A. Machado, CFA

Brazil GDP; current account and labor market data for Brazil and Economist

Thiago.Machado@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6249

Mexico, and inflation report in Mexico.

Andean in focus… The Andean region Exhibit 1: 1Q26 GDP showed a

enters 2026 with divergent macro stories slowdown in activity, but we are still

across countries, ranging from Chile’s constructive on the Chile story

soft cyclical backdrop to Colombia’s 10

demand-driven resilience and Peru’s more 64

balanced recovery. In Chile, weaker y-o-y 20

-2

production and moderating investment -4-6

momentum point to a softer handoff into -10-8

Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Sep-25 Mar-26

the year, although resilient domestic PvtNet consumptionexports GovtInventoriesconsumption GFCFGDP

demand, reforms, and favorable macro Source: BCCh, Morgan Stanley LatAm Economics

fundamentals continue to support a

constructive medium-term outlook. Against this backdrop, we expect BCCh to remain