CEEMEA Economics Weekly: Three Acts, One Objective

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Economics Weekly: Three Acts, One Objective

Update

May 22, 2026 03:30 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary LimitedMCEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA Andrea Masia

Economist

Three Acts, One Objective Andrea.Masia@rmbmorganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc +27 11 587-0820

Georgi Deyanov

We see the SARB raising rates next week by what could be a EconomistGeorgi.Deyanov@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7006

split vote. Despite strengthening currencies in Israel and Yomna Moheieldin

Hungary, we expect both the BOI and the NBH to remain on Economist

Yomna.Moheieldin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0771

hold as the outlook for energy prices remains highly uncertain.

Recent Research Highlights

We see inflation for May in Poland accelerating to 3.6%Y.

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significant increase in oil prices is not unique. Inflation targeters around the world Hungary: NBH Preview: Eyeing a Safer Easing

are grappling with a supply shock that sends inflation and growth in opposite Path

directions - a tenuous proposition even in the case of single mandate central banks. Israel: BOI Preview: Clarity Still Pending

South Africa: First Take: Flooding Impact on

• As it stands, USD/ZAR is around 1% lower than the MPC had pencilled in for

GDP

Q2 however oil prices are around 26% higher. With nothing to suggest a

Egypt: CBE Preview: Holding the Line

lower oil price in the short term, the SARB's inflation outlook is set to

Czech Republic: CNB Review: A Whipsaw Rate

deteriorate meaningfully. Beyond the next few months, the MPC's baseline

Path

oil forecast for Dec-2026 and Dec-27 was US$75 and US$66, respectively.

Poland: NBP Review: In the Waiting Zone