Steel Monitor: Bucking the Historical Trend

Research evidence excerpt

Steel Monitor: Bucking the Historical Trend

May 18, 2026 | 11:13 ET~

Metals & Mining - US

Steel Monitor: Bucking the Historical Trend Metals & Mining - US

Katja Jancic, CFA Analyst

katja.jancic@bmo.com (212) 883-5109

Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Corp.

Bottom Line:

Spot HRC prices increased further over the past two weeks, continuing an upward trend What's Inside

that began in October 2025, supported mainly by tighter spot availability. As highlighted Twenty-one exhibits aimed at framing the key

in Exhibits 1-2, recent years have seen HRC prices climb during first quarter, peaking industry drivers behind North American steel prices

around March or April and then dropping over the following months. However, this moving forward.

year, mills are increasing prices at a relatively slower pace. We believe the steady price

increases, combined with relatively lean inventory levels and lead times stretching into

late June, suggest that the usual seasonal dip in prices might be less pronounced, with

prices increasingly likely to remain higher for longer. Additionally, rising global costs for

energy, freight, and steel inputs have pushed up the cost of importing steel to the US,

further supporting domestic prices in the near term. However, we recognize persistent

and broad inflationary pressures could impact demand.

Key Points

Finished Prices and Spreads (Exhibits 3-8). U.S. HRC prices: $1,070/st, +1.4% vs. two

weeks ago (+2.4% m/m, +20.9% y/y). Asia HRC prices: +1.6% vs. two weeks ago (+5.6%

m/m). Europe HRC prices: flat vs. two weeks ago (-1.3% m/m). Regional spreads: Asia

spreads increased slightly, with U.S. HRC prices ~$612/st above comparable China prices,

vs. ~$608/st two weeks ago, and vs. an average of ~$385/st since 2018. European

spreads increased, with U.S.