North American Utilities Analyzing EPS Guidance Achievability vs. Rate Base Growth: ETR Again Stands Out

Research evidence excerpt

North American Utilities Analyzing EPS Guidance Achievability vs. Rate Base Growth: ETR Again Stands Out

ility for Genco JV earnings to materialize

in the back end of the 2026-29 plan period, depending on the timing of signed agreements

and the generation mix selected by these buyers. On the Genco JV, we see management’s

confidence in signing an agreement this year as a clear positive. Post the equity stake

sell-down, we appreciate SRE still holds a modest upside torque to LNG/energy infra

activity. Net of the earnings investment base CAGR with CET and EAM adders, we

estimate ED’s implied EPS growth likely skews to the bottom of its 6-7% guidance range,

implying a narrower level of cushion versus the prior vintage (6.9% JPMe), all else equal.

However, unquantified upside drivers, such as proactive planning capex, EAMs, and

CWIP balance changes, could lift ED higher within the range.

• Methodology and considerations overview. To drive this framework, we take targeted

rate base CAGRs less estimated annual equity dilution based on management guidance

(or JPM modeled dilution in any absence) over each company’s planning period, with the

full impact of new shares issued at current prices, to compare the implied EPS growth

post-share dilution. We also measure the size of forecasted load growth to compare

against regulated growth, though note that the stated sales growth may correspond to

certain subsidiaries and could differ from IRP materials or other company disclosures.

Parent interest expense, other financing sources (potentially asset sales or hybrids), and

regulatory outcomes such as authorized ROE changes, earned return trends, and other

rate case impacts stand outside of this analysis. Among excluded utilities are those with