Turkish politics return to the headlines MSCI Türkiye was ahead of EM YTD (until yesterday) while oil is >$100 and we forecast rate hikes. Stay N with no Turkish stocks in CEEMEA Strategy Top 10.

Research evidence excerpt

Turkish politics return to the headlines MSCI Türkiye was ahead of EM YTD (until yesterday) while oil is >$100 and we forecast rate hikes. Stay N with no Turkish stocks in CEEMEA Strategy Top 10.

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

22 May 2026

Turkish politics return to the

headlines

MSCI Türkiye was ahead of EM YTD (until yesterday)

while oil is >$100 and we forecast rate hikes. Stay N

with no Turkish stocks in CEEMEA Strategy Top 10.

The removal of the CHP (opposition party) leader by a court has put domestic CEEMEA & South Africa Equity

politics back in the Turkish headlines. Our economist is now forecasting rate Strategy

hikes- see the grey box below. We think all of this is a significant negative for David Aserkoff, CFA AC

the stock market, compounding the headwinds of higher oil prices and the (44-20) 7134-5887

absence of tech from the index. Our long-standing N rating on MSCI Türkiye is david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

predicated on our expectation that something always interrupts the bull case of J.P. Morgan Securities plc

falling inflation/rate cuts and pushes back the “two-tens” needed to durably re-rate Inga Q Galeni AC

the market (10% CPI/10% policy rate). Last year the something was the arrest of (27-11) 507-0335

inga.galeni@jpmorgan.com

the Istanbul mayor. This year it was the oil price spike as well as this court case. J.P. Morgan Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd.

We were worried that disinflation would take a backseat to easier fiscal/monetary

policy ahead of elections (due by 2028, possibly held earlier in 2027), but that is

now third in the queue of concerns, behind energy prices and domestic politics. We

are happy to be N on MSCI Türkiye in our CEEMEA allocation and to have

zero Turkish stocks in the CEEMEA Strategy Top 10. Within the market, we