J.P. Morgan GEMS FTM 22 May 26 ASEAN Equity Strategy; EM Money Trail; China Healthcare; Samsung Biologics; Thai Consumer; Liverpool; Rumo and More

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan GEMS FTM 22 May 26 ASEAN Equity Strategy; EM Money Trail; China Healthcare; Samsung Biologics; Thai Consumer; Liverpool; Rumo and More

lid 1Q26 prints; wider 2H26 risk band

Thai Consumer’s 15% YTD underperformance vs. the SET presents a selective buying opportunity following broad-based

earnings beats in 1Q26. Our view is anchored in three key drivers. First, we expect margins to have peaked in 1Q26, with

downside risks into 2H26 as energy/input cost pressures emerge. Second, the upcoming co-payment stimulus (~7% of basic

consumption in 2H26e) will expand the wallet but distort channel dynamics - favoring F&B while weighing on modern grocery

retail. Third, we remain cautious on home improvement, given weak property demand and persistent supply-demand

imbalance. Against this backdrop, we downgrade BJC from Neutral to UW (co-payment, margin squeeze, and MMVN’s

acquisition) and HMPRO from OW to Neutral (cautious HI & market share loss). OWs: CPALL (quality at a bargain valuation),

CPN (resilient business model), MRDIYT (earnings compounders in discovery phase), and MINT (asset monetization). Key

UWs: BJC and CPAXT.

Liverpool (Joseph Giordano) (LIVEPOLC MM, N, PT Ps106.00), Mexico

Seeing Risks To Guidance Delivery; Re-rating Needs Clearer Capital Returns - Keep Neutral

Liverpool remains a demand-and-execution-led story, where the near-term question is whether operational normalization

(import availability, logistics flow, and post-February disruption recovery) can translate into a credible re-acceleration in traffic-

led SSS amid intensifying online competition. We reiterate our Neutral rating with Dec’26 PT of Ps106/sh (8%+ vs previous) as

SSS is still tracking well below management’s FY26 guidance (Liverpool 5–6%; Suburbia 4.5–5.5%) versus our 4.2% / 2.8%