Large Banks Consumer Credit Credit Metrics Holding Up - Impact of Inflation, AI Key Uncertainties; Post Tax Refund Spending? Younger Age Unemployment

Research evidence excerpt

Large Banks Consumer Credit Credit Metrics Holding Up - Impact of Inflation, AI Key Uncertainties; Post Tax Refund Spending? Younger Age Unemployment

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

22 May 2026

Large Banks Consumer Credit

Credit Metrics Holding Up - Impact of Inflation, AI Key

Uncertainties; Post Tax Refund Spending? Younger

Age Unemployment

Consumer credit quality is holding up overall and should continue to do so as Banks — Large-Cap

ACunemployment remains low, economy is holding up, and spending continues to Vivek Juneja

grow in nominal terms. However one unknown is what will happen to spending (1-212) 622-6465

after tax refunds, especially among lower income consumers. Furthermore, vivek.juneja@jpmorgan.com

medium term, some pressures continue to build - rising inflation and impact of AI Andrew J Dietrich

on employment with news of more job cuts by companies through use of AI. (1-212) 622-4244

Unemployment in 20-24 year old cohort moved back up by over a full point last aj.dietrich@jpmorgan.com

month and bears watching. Spending data seems to be holding up but with some Sai M Nettem

variation among consumer segments by data source. Key is middle income (1-212) 622-2666

sai.nettem@jpmorgan.com

consumers who seem to be holding up but it is unclear at what point sustained high J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

inflation will start to impact this segment with more sharp cost increases coming

in several areas such as utility bills. Lower income consumers have been struggling

for a while and are worse off versus pre-pandemic on inflation adjusted basis per Select Reports:

some of our banks - however, this has not impacted credit quality thus far at our Post 1Q26: C&I Growth Key, Mix Shift

banks.