JPM Steel | Daily Despatch US spreads approach $700/mt; Asian spreads $270/mt; US HRC futures curve peak in Aug/Sep near $1,140/st

Research evidence excerpt

JPM Steel | Daily Despatch US spreads approach $700/mt; Asian spreads $270/mt; US HRC futures curve peak in Aug/Sep near $1,140/st

tariff rates above 15% on EU steel and aluminum derivatives beyond December 31.

Source: S&P Global.

• HR Futures: Curve continues to move higher: The US HRC futures curve continues to move higher and shift further out,

with the peak migrating towards August/September near $1,140, signaling the market is reassessing the pace of normalisation

rather than just near-term scarcity. Despite output near multi-year highs, lead times remain extended and inventories lean, as

pre-committed production and an impaired import response constrained by Section 232 tariffs, AD/CVD exposure, and

geopolitical uncertainty leave the usual self-correcting mechanisms operating with far more friction, suggesting elevated

prices may persist longer than prior cycles would imply. Source: SMU

• SMU: Most steel buyers expect prices to rise: A recent SMU poll shows that most steel buyers expect prices to continue

rising over the next three months, with some anticipating a peak around June or July, supported by stable-to-improving

demand driven largely by data centers and OEM activity. However, 53% of respondents say Trump’s tariff policies are not

benefiting their businesses and three-quarters see little evidence of manufacturing reshoring, with buyers also flagging

potential United Steelworkers contract expirations and service center consolidation as under-the-radar risks. Source: SMU

• HARDI: HVAC market predicts bullish streak sustains through summer: Galvanized steel buyers and distributors expect

tightening supply and rising prices to persist into the summer, with mill delays, trucking scarcity, and 8-10 week lead times