AMRC: Updating Estimates & Valuation to Reflect JV Mechanics

Research evidence excerpt

AMRC: Updating Estimates & Valuation to Reflect JV Mechanics

Power Technology

Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

May 18, 2026

AMRC: Updating Estimates & Valuation to Reflect JV Price: $31.02

Price Target: $45.00 (From $41.00) Mechanics

Rating: Overweight

Takeaways

Key Statistics: The main change to our model is the May 12 close of the Neogenyx JV, not Symbol NYSE: AMRC

52-Week Range 12.95 - 44.93 any shift in AMRC’s underlying operating outlook. Revenue remains largely

Market Cap 1,642.6 unchanged on a consolidated basis post-close, so our top-line revisions

ADV (3 mo) 545,958 are modest, with FY26/FY27 revenue moving to $2.15B/$2.33B. The more

Free Float (%) 8.696 meaningful change is in reported profitability: because AMRC will own 70%

Shares Out (M) 35.0 of Neogenyx after closing. EPS for FY26 is moving modestly higher to $1.15

(from $1.11), while FY27 declines to $1.83 (from $2.08) as the full-year

Research Analysts: minority-interest effect is captured more fully in the model. Management

Manish A. Somaiya was explicit that the revised FY26 Adj. EBITDA outlook reflects JV/non- 212-915-1051

Manish.Somaiya@Cantor.com controlling-interest mechanics rather than any deterioration in the core

operating trajectory, and that the underlying business outlook remains

REV ($M) unchanged. (see pg 3 onwards)

FYE Dec 2025A 2026E 2027E

1Q $352.8 $401.5A $437.2 We are raising our price target to $45 from $41, primarily to reflect

Prev - $356.4E $388.3 the strategic value crystallized by the Neogenyx closing and the updated

2Q $472.3 $522.7E $568.8 post-close ownership structure. The transaction implies roughly $1.8B 3Q $526.0 $581.7E $628.9

4Q $581.0 $643.4E $695.4 in enterprise value for the biofuels platform, delivers $100M in direct