NHP: Initiating at OW—This Show Me Story in Senior Housing Still Has More to Show

Research evidence excerpt

NHP: Initiating at OW—This Show Me Story in Senior Housing Still Has More to Show

Equity Research

Initiation of Coverage — May 18, 2026

Healthcare REITs

National Healthcare Properties, Inc.

Initiating at OW—This Show Me Story in Senior Housing Overweight

Still Has More to Show Price Target: $16.00

Our Call Ticker NHP

Upside/(Downside) to Target 10.7%

Initiating on National Healthcare Properties (NHP) with OW & $16 PT. We view Senior

Housing fundamentals, portfolio transition progress, SS SHOP growth above peers & Price (05/14/2026) $14.45

building credibility through execution as catalysts even after post-IPO stock move. 52 Week Range $11.25 - 14.86

Market Cap (MM) $409

Summary: We have a favorable view on the supply / demand outlook for senior housing Enterprise Value (MM) $1,392

(SH) with the US population >75 expected to grow 29.3% over the next ten years Average Daily Value (MM) $22

(much more inside). NHP is a Healthcare REIT that completed its IPO on 4/22/26 & is Dividend Yield 0.0%

transitioning to focus predominantly on SH through outpatient medical asset sales & SH

acquisitions. Pro forma for transactions in process, NHP expects to generate 59% of NOI $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

from SH assets & grow this percentage over time. Core FFO/Share

2026E 0.26 A 0.16 E 0.19 E 0.15 E 0.76 E

The Transition. A ~$528M OMF sale under contract combined with pending SH 2027E 0.23 E 0.24 E 0.26 E 0.23 E 0.95 E

acquisitions will accelerate SHOP to 59% of portfolio NOI (37% at 4Q25) with a path to

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

~70% by 1Q27. The SH portfolio will skew needs-based (76% AL/MC) with 3 operating NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

partners: Senior Lifestyle (63%), Discovery (29%) & AgeWell (8%), with Philadelphia,