Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Catalyst Alert: Gulf carrier fare sales a potential negative – June/July

Research evidence excerpt

Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Catalyst Alert: Gulf carrier fare sales a potential negative – June/July

Equity Research

21 May 2026

Deutsche Lufthansa AG

Catalyst Alert: Gulf carrier fare

sales a potential negative – June/

LHAG.DE/LHA GY UNDERWEIGHTJuly

Unchanged

Gulf carriers could launch fare sales and strong marketing European Transportation NEUTRAL

over the next two months to relaunch operations, pressuring Unchanged

European carrier pricing on Asia/Africa routes. We see this as Price Target lowered -9% fromEUREUR6.807.50

a key signal that Lufthansa unit revenue and profitability Price (20-May-26) EUR 7.92

guidance is overoptimistic. UW, PT to €6.80 from €7.50 Potential Upside/Downside -14.2% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Catalyst: Gulf carriers have restored high levels of capacity despite the lack of credible peace in Market Cap (EUR mn) 9500

the Middle East. As at 19 May, Emirates and Etihad both operated around 80%, and Qatar 60% of Shares Outstanding (mn) 1199.28

pre conflict capacity. However, none of the airlines have so far assertively marketed this Free Float (%) 84.93

capacity and IATA data suggests they are flying at low load factors1 . In the coming two months, 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 5.1

even without a full peace agreement, Gulf carriers could undertake a commercial launch to fill Dividend Yield (%) 4.16

their aircraft for economic reasons. We think this would require significant discounts to Return on Equity TTM (%) 13.66

incentivise passengers to transit the Gulf. Gulf carriers would likely specifically target connecting Current BVPS (EUR) 10.28

flows through the Gulf, as tourist demand for the Gulf hubs themselves will take time to recover Source: Bloomberg