Sunrun Inc.: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

Sunrun Inc.: Model update

Equity Research

North America Clean Technology

21 May 2026

Sunrun Inc.

Model update

We expect cash generation to come in around ~$330mm for

this year, increasing to over $550mm+ next year, assuming

there is no more recourse debt paydown. RUN EQUAL WEIGHT Unchanged

North America Clean POSITIVE

We are publishing an updated model post the 1Q print to reflect reported numbers and updated Technology Unchanged

forecasts. For 2Q, we estimate $1.2 bn for aggregate subscriber value, at the top end of the $1.1-

Price Target USD 14.00$1.2 bn guidance range, and forecast $145mm for contracted net value creation, towards the Unchanged

midpoint of the $100-$200mm outlook given by the company. For full year, we estimate $5.3 bn

Price (20-May-26) USD 13.69for aggregate subscriber value, above the high end of the $4.8-$5.2 bn guidance range, and we

Potential Upside/Downside +2.3%expect $760mm of contracted net value creation vs. the $650-$1,050mm outlook given by the Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

company. We anticipate cash generation of ~$330mm for the full year, heavily weighted towards

2H26, with ~$54mm expected for 2Q as it should benefit from some of the financing that was

Market Cap (USD mn) 3265

pushed out from 1Q. We maintain our price target at $14 (unchanged), based on 1) 50%

Shares Outstanding (mn) 238.55

weighting to our DCF valuation using a 6% discount rate for the PowerCo, and 2) 50% weighting

Free Float (%) 96.87to an 11x multiple (unchanged) on value creation of ~$1.30bn (unchanged) at 7.5% in 2027E.

52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 13.0Both methodologies assume 50% renewal rates.

Dividend Yield (%) N/A

RUN: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD) Return on Equity TTM (%) 19.06

Current BVPS (USD) 14.19 2025 2026 2027 Change y/y

Source: Bloomberg