US Daily Data Recap "EFFR edges down, Paulson & energy data recap" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "EFFR edges down, Paulson & energy data recap" Wilcox

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

US Daily Data Recap Economics

AmericasEFFR edges down, Paulson & energy data recap

Amanda Wilcox

Economist

The effective federal funds rate edged down again to 3.62% on May 19, widening its amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3899

spread below the interest on reserve balances, and signalling ample reserves. This could

be one justification for the Fed's recently announced slower pace of reserve Jonathan Pingle

management purchases. This week, FRB of New York's System Account Manager Economist

Roberto Perli emphasized that purchases can be flexibly adjusted based on reserve jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

conditions and money market dynamics.

Alan Detmeister

We also round up high-frequency energy data inside. Gasoline prices have risen alan.detmeister@ubs.com

modestly again in recent days and are expected to boost energy goods prices in the May +1-212-713 1222

CPI. Oil prices remain volatile with futures still pointing to elevated levels relative to pre-

Abigail Wattconflict benchmarks. US crude inventories fell again in the week ending May 15, driven

by declines in both the SPR and commercial stocks. Exports of oil products remain abigail.watt@ubs.com

elevated as of the week ending May 15 relative to late February levels. US production +1-212-882 6929

has been generally flat since the start of the Middle East conflict, indicating that the US

Jalen Nichols

is supporting global supply through stocks rather than increased output.

jalen.nichols@ubs.com

On Tuesday evening, FRB of Philadelphia President Paulson said that policy is "well- +1-212-882 6905

positioned" but indicated rate hikes could be warranted if growth strengthens above