US Economic Perspectives "FOMC minutes: mounting inflation risks" Pingle

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives "FOMC minutes: mounting inflation risks" Pingle

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasFOMC minutes: mounting inflation risks

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

Shifting risks: odds of hikes rising jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

The April FOMC meeting minutes captured the shift underway at that meeting. Since

then, many participants have expressed heightened concern over the risk that inflation Alan Detmeister

Economistremains more elevated and for longer than previously expected. Adding to that, has

alan.detmeister@ubs.com

been rising concern as events in the Middle East persist, that the conflict could lead to +1-212-713 1222

broader supply disruptions. Those risks have led several FOMC participants speaking in

recent weeks to note that at some point, if disinflation does not resume, rate hikes Abigail Watt

might be needed. How long that takes represents a key detail not really explained in the

abigail.watt@ubs.com

minutes released today. In the minutes released today, a majority of participants noted +1-212-882 6929

that if inflation continues to run above the 2.0% objective, at some point tighter

monetary policy might be needed to bring inflation down to the FOMC's target. Amanda Wilcox

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

A significant amount of the discussion was conditional on how events in the Middle East +1-212-713 3899

might unfold. In each of the three key policy discussion paragraphs, all were begun with Jalen Nichols

the uncertainty surrounding those events and how important those uncertain Economist

implications might be for policy. As we expected "many" participants thought the jalen.nichols@ubs.com

implied easing bias in the FOMC statement should have been changed at this meeting, +1-212-882 6905