US Economic Perspectives "Labor Market Disruption Part 1: AI Is Coming" Pingle

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives "Labor Market Disruption Part 1: AI Is Coming" Pingle

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasLabor Market Disruption Part 1: AI Is Coming

Jonathan Pingle

Economist

We expect AI to be disruptive jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

We expect Artificial Intelligence to be disruptive. We expect AI to be a labor replacing

technology and not just labor augmenting. We do not think AI's impact will result in Abigail Watt

Economiststructurally higher unemployment, all else equal. Reconciling that may sound confusing,

abigail.watt@ubs.com

but we expect to discuss that in a 4-part series on labor market disruption and AI. +1-212-882 6929

Alan Detmeister

The current debate surrounding the impact of AI on the US labor market uses terms like Economist

"Jevons Paradox," the "Future of Work," and "skill bias". Writers reference the alan.detmeister@ubs.com

industrial revolution, computers and the internet. Disagreement over what type of +1-212-713 1222

worker gets replaced ends dinners. However, an intelligent conversation on the topic

Amanda Wilcox

can not start without understanding unappreciated facts about how the US labor Economist

market works. If these discussions include groups of us working with alternative facts, amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

the points of agreement will look like Congressional gridlock. +1-212-713 3899

Jalen Nichols

This is the first of four notes we plan to release in the coming few weeks. The second Economist

note includes a recent example of disruptive technology that rendered millions of US jalen.nichols@ubs.com

workers unneeded in the US manufacturing sector. That presents a useful case study +1-212-882 6905

into both 1) labor replacing technology driving productivity gains and 2) dislocation.