Philippines Market Strategy "Q126 earnings wrap: brace for more headwind..."

Research evidence excerpt

Philippines Market Strategy "Q126 earnings wrap: brace for more headwind..."

, we cannot expect investors to gain confidence in this market,

delaying a potential re-rating from current valuation of 10x 2026E PE. Our index target is

maintained at 6,200pts.

Here are some Q126 results commentary:

Banks: The Big-3 banks delivered a slightly softer set of results. Asset quality

across the three banks remains manageable but early stress is emerging,

particularly in consumer/SME segments with credit cost guidance revised higher.

Loan growth guidance also appears broadly intact, though risks are skewed to the

downside from macro headwinds.

Conglos: Results generally fell short of expectations, largely driven by weaker

earnings from key subsidiaries. We expect this earnings weakness to persist over

the next few quarters, particularly for JGS and GTCAP, as elevated fuel costs weigh

on CEB and a softer auto outlook pressures TMP, respectively.

Consumer: Food and staples revenues were resilient, though we've observed a

notable slowdown in restaurant SSSG. Broadly, we did not see gross margin

compression yet, as companies exhausted inventory procured prior to the Middle

East conflict.

Property: Malls continued to outperform, despite elevated fuel costs in March.

Office trends were stable. Residential generally underperformed on slower

completions and margin pressure. Pre-sales remain well-below historical levels.

Capex guidance for ALI and SMPH was revised downward, reflecting more

cautious sentiment amid rising construction costs.

Telcos: Mobile trends softened as ARPUs declined sequentially. Broadband growth

remains led by prepaid additions. Mynt/Maya's growth provided partial support to

earnings.

Power/Utilities: Results were mostly in-line. In power, earnings growth was