Rare Earths "Catching up with...Wood Mackenzie" Ariyasinghe

Research evidence excerpt

Rare Earths "Catching up with...Wood Mackenzie" Ariyasinghe

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

Rare Earths Equities

GlobalCatching up with...Wood Mackenzie

Basic Materials

Dim Ariyasinghe

Catching up with Wood Mackenzie's Rare Earths Team Analyst

We caught up with commodity consultant Wood Mackenzie (WM) to get their latest dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

view on the rare earths market. Overall, they were less optimistic near-term demand vs. +61-3-9242 6385

UBSe, but forecast the China NdPr price to remain range-bound around ~US$100/kg on Lachlan Shaw

limited domestic supply growth and the inference that this price was amenable to both Analyst

miners & magnet makers. Reach out to the team if you would like to get the replay. lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6387

NdPr price range-bound with current price manageable for both magnet

Levi Spry

makers and miners: WM expect prices to average US$100/kg near-term and

Analyst

highlighted that both magnet makers and miners were profitable at these levels (vs levi.spry@ubs.com

cycle low prices of US$40/kg where even the domestic majors were struggling to +61-3-9242 6709

stay cash positive).

Al Harvey

Demand growth slowing on weak China domestic consumer sentiment: Analyst

WM forecast NdPr demand growth of ~5% in 2026/7e, lower than previous years al.harvey@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6071 ~10%, on muted domestic China consumer demand (and in particular domestic

EV sales) and lower renewable-related demand from U.S. markets; UBS are more Ben Wood

constructive especially with regard to EV export sales. Analyst

ben.wood@ubs.com

But China domestic supply growth even lower: with WM historically +61-39-242 6709

modelling (opaque) China supply growth to match China demand, they expect

Sharon Ding