James Hardie Industries "Still no signs of a recovery in the US housing cycle"

Research evidence excerpt

James Hardie Industries "Still no signs of a recovery in the US housing cycle"

etting the

03/28E 1.51 1.44 -5 1.55

implied LSD decline in JHX's market volumes. Our analysis suggests the guidance

03/29E 1.73 1.62 -6 1.88

assumes modest contribution from PDG/organic initiatives, though we note the

relatively challenged visibility on SF volume and price inflation elasticity assumptions as Nathan Reilly

key risk factors in this more uncertain housing market. We forecast Group FY27 Analyst

EBITDA growth of 17% to $1.48bn (vs. guidance $1.45-1.50bn), with JHX noting it nathan.reilly@ubs.com

expects to manage c.$80-100mn of Middle East cost inflation headwinds with pricing +61-2-9324 3156

and manufacturing efficiencies. Will Wilson

Analyst

US housing activity still challenged by low consumer confidence. Neutral will-za.wilson@ubs.com

+61-2-9324 3848

Longer term, we expect JHX to benefit from the structural underbuild of US housing and

the identified material conversion opportunities in both siding and decking. However, in Felix Zhang

the short term, we expect the stock to track broader sentiment on the US housing cycle, Analyst

felix.zhang@ubs.com

where we note visibility over the shape of any recovery in activity is dependent on

+61-2-9324 3406

improving consumer confidence and greater support from lower mortgage rates.

Valuation: 12m PT A$30.00/sh (was A$33.50)

Our equal weighted DCF & P/E based PT falls -10% to A$30.00/sh, as we cut our

FY27/28/29E EPS forecasts by -4%/-5%/-6% respectively and M2M on lower peer

multiples. Our PT implies a 1yr fwd P/E multiple of 18x, which also represents a c.20%

discount to higher-growth US building product peers (in line with post-AZEK avg.).

Highlights (US$m) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E