Mining Expert Calls "#2 China Infrastructure/renewables" Major

Research evidence excerpt

Mining Expert Calls "#2 China Infrastructure/renewables" Major

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

Mining Expert Calls Equities

Global#2 China Infrastructure/renewables

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

Ken Liu (renewables) & Yuhua Li (infra) in Part 2 of China call series Analyst

Infrastructure 'stimulus' has been a key offset to the downcycle in the China property daniel.major@ubs.com

sector over the last 5yrs and material growth in the base of spend combined with +44-20-7568 3472

diminishing returns on Infra projects has seen infra FAI growth decelerate in recent years/ Yuhua Li

contract in 2025. The takeaways from our call are incrementally more constructive on Analyst

the outlook for broader Infra FAI with a healthy pipeline of 'traditional' projects and a yuhua.li@ubs.com

more bullish outlook for 'energy transition' (grid & power generation) as China doubles +852-2971 6491

down on its advantage vs US in energy/power generation to support AI. Although Ken Liu

commodities demand from 'traditional infra' (steel/cement) is likely to stagnate; it is Analyst

unlikely to materially contract. We expect strong momentum in grid capex and growth ken.liu@ubs.com

in power generation capacity to be sustained through 2026 supporting robust demand +852-2971 7516

growth for copper/aluminium (after soft 2H25). Myles Allsop

Analyst

Policy-led recovery in infrastructure FAI myles.allsop@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 1693

Infrastructure FAI declined in 2025 (-5% y/y ex-utilities, -1% overall), driven by the

slowdown/deferral of projects in the 2H as the 14th Five Year Plan drew to a close; this Amy Yi Li

reflected policy timing, rather than a structural demand deterioration. 2026 and the Analyst

start of the 15th Five Year Plan began with a strong policy-driven rebound with amy-yi.li@ubs.com