Copper "Higher for longer" Major

Research evidence excerpt

Copper "Higher for longer" Major

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

Copper Equities

GlobalHigher for longer

Basic Materials

Daniel Major

Lift copper price floor on positive outlook...but near-term signals mixed Analyst

The pullback in the copper price following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict was daniel.major@ubs.com

short-lived and the market (physical & paper) has been quick to re-engage with copper/ +44-20-7568 3472

copper equities lifting the LME price back close to record highs >$13k/t / $6.0/lb. Despite Myles Allsop

near-term risks to 'traditional' end demand if energy prices continue to rise, we think the Analyst

positive fundamental outlook for copper based on supply constraints vs resilient myles.allsop@ubs.com

demand from energy transition is unchanged/arguably more compelling. Mine +44-20-7568 1693

disruptions/downgrades continue (Kamoa-Kakula & Grasberg) and, in our view, energy Amy Yi Li

price volatility is likely to reinforce the need for sustained investment in renewables, grids Analyst

and reshoring that will support copper demand medium-term. amy-yi.li@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 2064

After reviewing our S&D model, we continue to believe the market is likely to move into George Eadie

deficit, and that tighter physical markets/inventory drawdown will support elevated Analyst

george.eadie@ubs.com

prices medium-term; but the market is not super tight today. Demand signals are mixed

+1-646-996 4596

and sustained high prices will increase thrifting/substitution pressure; whilst mine output

remains under pressure, smelter output continues to hold up, suggesting the much Levi Spry

anticipated copper deficit may take longer to materialise and an inventory buffer will Analyst

levi.spry@ubs.com

need to be eroded for real physical tightness to emerge.