Global Sustainability "Brazil (Bio) Fuels Expert Meeting - ABICOM" Carvalho

Research evidence excerpt

Global Sustainability "Brazil (Bio) Fuels Expert Meeting - ABICOM" Carvalho

Global Research

20 May 2026ab

Global Sustainability Equities

Latin AmericaBrazil (Bio) Fuels Expert Meeting - ABICOM

Global Sustainability

Luciana Carvalho

Diesel dislocation reshapes Brazil’s supply outlook Product Manager

Yesterday we hosted a virtual discussion with ABICOM on Brazil’s fuels market, luciana.carvalho@ubs.com

covering diesel supply dynamics, the government’s subsidy program, and the role of +55-11-2767 6524

biofuels in Brazil. While Brazil remains crude self-sufficient, the system still relies Shneur Z. Gershuni, CFA

structurally on diesel imports, leaving it exposed to global price volatility and Analyst

domestic policy execution. There was broad alignment that: (i) working capital shneur.gershuni@ubs.com

reshapes market structure; (ii) subsidy design links policy risk to physical supply; +1-212-713 3974

and (iii) biofuels reduce gasoline risk, but diesel remains structurally exposed. This Tasso Vasconcellos

report is part of UBS’ ongoing series on biofuels and builds on our note: Brazilian Analyst

Biofuel: Policy-Driven Demand with Improving Visibility. tasso.vasconcellos@ubs.com

+55-11-2767 6683

Global volatility drives diesel import risk Victoria Kalb

The global backdrop, particularly Middle East tensions and concerns around supply Analyst

routes, was highlighted as a key driver of oil price volatility, with crude moving from vicki.kalb@ubs.com

+65-6495 4584

~US$65/bbl to above US$100/bbl. However, the transmission into Brazil is indirect.

As emphasized in the discussion, Brazil’s vulnerability does not stem from crude Alisa Dudchak

availability, but from its dependence on imported diesel, with flows currently Analyst

dominated by Russia and supplemented by the US.